In the past two days, the latest news from Mongolia indicates that the country will increase its coal exports to Japan and South Korea in the future, whereas the vast majority of its coal was previously exported to China. This shift seems to imply a reduction in exports to China.

Regardless of the actual situation, the American media is already in a frenzy, as they perceive this to be a positive development.

However, the reality might be that China is the one that comes out ahead.

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Over the years, trade between Mongolia and China has been very close, with China importing nearly 30 million tons of coal from Mongolia alone. It's important to note that Mongolia exported a total of 31.69 million tons of coal last year, making it clear that China accounted for the majority.

The large demand for coal in the Chinese market has been mutually beneficial for both Mongolia and China.

On one hand, Mongolia does not have to worry about the export of its resources, which are fully utilized and contribute to economic growth. On the other hand, for China, coal is a necessity. With its large population, China naturally has a significant demand for energy.

However, in 2022, Mongolia "lost" 6.5 million tons of coal, which was not recorded in the export records at all. Perhaps to indirectly address the issues left over from last year, Mongolia has decided to increase exports to Japan and South Korea this year.

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Mongolia's explanation for this is to bring more direct benefits to the country, which is a normal and purely commercial decision. However, in the eyes of the United States, it seems to have placed another stumbling block in the way of China's economic development.

One must admire the American media.In fact, the coal trade between China and Mongolia cannot be halted.

The contracts signed by enterprises of the two countries in the past have long-term durations. This means that previously signed contracts will not be affected by subsequent policies and will not change. Long-term contracts account for about three-quarters, and despite some adjustments in Mongolia's policies, cooperation is still ongoing.

On the other hand, although there have been changes in the delivery channels, now it is border delivery. What has not changed is that cooperation can still proceed normally, and the process of trade has become more convenient.

Last year, Mongolia experienced internal turmoil and was preoccupied with its own affairs, leading to a change in its coal export policy to China. However, the essence is merely a slight shift in the mode of transaction.

Moreover, for Mongolia to trade with Japan and South Korea, it still needs to pass through China, which is actually an additional benefit for China.

South Korea and Japan have always been interested in Mongolia's coal resources and hope to import from Mongolia, from which Mongolia can also earn more money. For China, as Mongolia's exports pass through China, it can also conveniently earn money from Japan and South Korea, which is a win-win situation.

Thirty-one years ago, the trade routes between Mongolia and South Korea and Japan were transported by rail from Siberia in the Soviet Union to the Port of Vladivostok. However, in recent decades, the route has changed to depart from the Port of Tianjin to Japan and South Korea, reducing the railway transportation by more than 2,000 kilometers compared to the previous route.

In other words, in addition to paying for the coal to Mongolia, Japan and South Korea also have to pay China for the costs of railway, port, and other transportation fees, which is a good thing for us.It appears that the United States is overthinking this matter.