① Morgan Stanley forecasts a 7% drop of the euro against the US dollar, with the European Central Bank likely to cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points.

This Thursday (September 12th), the European Central Bank will announce its latest interest rate decision. The market widely anticipates that, against the backdrop of weak economic growth and slightly eased inflationary pressures, the ECB will lower interest rates again following the first cut in June. The latest Reuters survey shows that out of 77 economic analysts, 64, or nearly 85%, predict that the ECB will cut rates by 25 basis points this week, reducing the benchmark rate to 3.5%, and further adjust the rate down to 3.25% in December. Additionally, Morgan Stanley expects the euro to fall towards parity with the US dollar within a few months. Specifically, David Adams, the head of G-10 FX Strategy at Morgan Stanley, believes that the euro will drop to 1.02 US dollars by the end of the year, a decline of about 7% from the current level, and traders may increase their bets on the ECB to hedge against the risk of a half-percentage-point rate cut. Previously, Deutsche Presse-Agentur analyzed that the declining inflation rate in Germany and the entire eurozone would provide room for the ECB to cut rates. According to estimates, the eurozone's inflation rate in August was 2.2%.

Jian Jia, Director of Equity Investment at Mi Yuan Investment: The ECB's interest rate cut decision reflects a response to the current economic situation, aiming to stimulate economic growth by reducing borrowing costs. However, there is a divergence in market predictions about the future trend of the euro, which may be influenced by factors such as the US elections, changes in energy prices, political uncertainties, and the ECB's future path of rate cuts. Investors should closely monitor these factors to assess the potential risks and opportunities of the euro.

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② "Troubled brothers" Google and Apple lose cases in the EU Court on the same day!

On Tuesday local time, Apple lost a lawsuit in the EU's highest court regarding 13 billion euros ($14.4 billion) in Irish tax matters, with the EU's highest court ruling that Ireland violated state aid laws by providing unfair preferential treatment to Apple. This ruling by the EU's highest court is considered final, meaning Apple will no longer be able to appeal the case. On the same day, in another ruling, the EU's highest court upheld the decision of the EU antitrust officials to fine Alphabet's Google 2.42 billion euros ($2.6 billion). Justice Department lawyer Julia Tarver Wood stated in her opening remarks that Google used classic monopolistic strategies, such as acquiring to eliminate competitors, locking in customers to use its products, and controlling the way transactions are conducted in the online advertising market. As a result, Apple's stock closed down 0.36% overnight, at $220.110; Google A closed down 0.03% overnight, at $148.660. Analysts believe that after a period of rapid increase, the consolidation phase, underperforming earnings, antitrust investigations, and losing lawsuits, and other bearish news have hit star tech stocks harder, causing more concern among investors.

Jian Jia, Director of Equity Investment at Mi Yuan Investment: This ruling is not only a significant blow to Apple but also an important victory for the EU in antitrust and tax compliance. This may prompt other multinational companies to reassess their tax arrangements and may increase global attention to tax transparency and fairness. At the same time, this may also exacerbate trade tensions between the US and Europe and affect the discussion and reform of global tax policies.

③ Intel's 88%-owned Mobileye decides to terminate the development of LiDAR.

Recently, Mobileye, an autonomous driving company controlled by Intel, announced that it will close its LiDAR research and development department by the end of 2024, marking a significant strategic adjustment in Mobileye's autonomous driving technology. Mobileye stated that the termination of the development of the next generation of Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) LiDAR for autonomous driving systems is based on multiple factors, including significant progress in core computer vision perception technology, the improvement of the performance of internally developed imaging radar, and the continuous reduction in the cost of third-party Time-of-Flight (ToF) LiDAR. It is understood that Mobileye focuses on the research and development of visual perception and Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS). Despite maintaining a leading position in the global market for a long time, it lowered key indicators such as annual revenue, shipments, and operating profit in its second-quarter report for 2024, reflecting that the company is facing challenges. Mobileye's stock closed down 3.14% overnight, at $10.800. It is worth noting that since 2024, Mobileye's stock price has fallen by more than 74%, and its current market value has dropped to $8.759 billion. Insiders revealed that Intel, which is in a profit dilemma, is considering selling its Mobileye shares.

Jian Jia, Director of Equity Investment at Mi Yuan Investment: Mobileye's termination of FMCW LiDAR development and closure of the R&D department reflects the company's strategic adjustment in the route of autonomous driving technology. By focusing on more cost-effective ToF LiDAR and imaging radar, Mobileye may reduce operating costs while maintaining its competitiveness in the field of autonomous driving. In addition, Intel's consideration of selling Mobileye shares may be a response to Mobileye's current financial situation and market performance, and it may also be part of Intel's own financial strategy.

④ AMD CEO: The AI supercycle has just begun.AMD CEO Dr. Lisa Su recently stated that the supercycle for artificial intelligence has just begun, and AMD is aiming to challenge NVIDIA's market-leading position by accelerating the launch of high-performance AI chips. Following the successful release of AMD's MI300x series nine months ago, Dr. Su announced that new MI series chips will be released subsequently. Later this year, AMD will officially promote the launch of its MI325 AI chip, with the MI350 set to be introduced next year, and the MI400 planned for 2026 to challenge NVIDIA's dominance. Dr. Su revealed that the new generation of MI series chips will feature up to 192GB of memory and an impressive 153 billion transistors. The powerful memory capacity means that AMD's AI chips can be used to train large language models, such as OpenAI's ChatGPT. Additionally, Dr. Su also indicated that by the end of 2024, AMD's sales of MI300 chips alone could reach $4.5 billion, a projection that significantly exceeds the approximately $100 million in AI-related chip revenue that AMD achieved last year. AMD's stock closed up 3.39% overnight, at $142.840.

Yi Yuan Investment Equity Investment Director, Jian Jia: AMD's proactive layout and product launches in the field of artificial intelligence demonstrate its optimistic expectations for the AI supercycle and its emphasis on market potential. Although NVIDIA currently holds a dominant position in the market, AMD's strategy and technological innovation are expected to drive its growth and competitiveness in the AI chip market in the coming years.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Research Institute Executive General Manager, Qian Qiming: Leading companies are actively positioning themselves, and the AI chip sector still has great potential. The relevant A-share segments can continue to be monitored.

Precious Metals Investment Researcher: Gold Welcomes the "Second Phase" of Inflation Trigger Point

Recherche Bay precious metals investment researcher Laurent Maurel stated that as the United States falls into stagflation, gold has become the ultimate defensive asset for 2024, replacing bond assets. The buying spree by central banks has solidified gold's position as a reserve asset. According to Bank of America, gold has now surpassed the euro to become the world's second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar, accounting for 16% of reserve assets. Maurel pointed out that the supply of liquidity is increasing, while the number of available real assets is decreasing. We have all the factors for an inflation recovery. The conditions are in place; all we need is a trigger to get things started again. He concluded: "Gold prices are hitting new highs, telling us that we are on the verge of a new round of inflation phase trigger point. Gold warns us that the Federal Reserve is about to make a monetary policy mistake again."

Yi Yuan Investment Equity Investment Director, Jian Jia: Due to the potential for the United States to face stagflation, the importance of gold as a defensive asset has significantly increased in 2024, and it may even replace bonds as the main reserve asset. Gold has already become the world's second-largest reserve asset, second only to the US dollar. Amidst stagflation and increasing risks of US default, gold has attracted new buyers.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Research Institute Executive General Manager, Qian Qiming: The likelihood of gold prices continuing to rise is relatively high, but there is little significance in chasing the highs at present.