The United States has halted its printing press,initiating a monetary tightening that has led to a global harvest.
However,Vietnam has delivered impressive economic data for the year 2022.
According to Vietnamese media reports: In the last fiscal year,Vietnam's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached its target and even exceeded the expected growth rate of 8.02%.
At the same time,Vietnam's customs provided a set of trade data that also looked attractive; throughout 2022,the export value increased significantly by 10.5%,surpassing $370 billion.
It appears that Vietnam has successfully evaded the United States' harvesting scythe.
However,it should not be overlooked that $14 billion in Vietnamese dong has flowed out of the Vietnamese market,and at the same time,in 2023,Vietnam is also facing the dilemma of declining orders and increasing unemployment.
Vietnam has discovered that China is a lifeline.
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In the past two years,the global market development situation has been turbulent,and the demand for Vietnam's exports has been affected as a result.The high growth rate achieved by Vietnam last year may be difficult to replicate this year.Some experts predict that due to the instability of the global economic situation,Vietnam's economy will also be caught up in the storm.This year,Vietnam's economy may face a rapid downward trend.
Recently,the Asian Development Bank has downgraded its economic outlook for Vietnam.Previously,it was believed that Vietnam's economic growth rate for 2023 would be 6.7%; the current forecast is 6.3%.Essentially speaking,Vietnam's foundation remains fragile because its economic mainstay is still low-end manufacturing.Despite having numerous small and medium-sized enterprises,most are poorly managed.
It is well-known that countries overly reliant on foreign trade imports and exports have constant vulnerabilities,and Vietnam is no exception.If the global market situation changes,Vietnam might seize the opportunity to make a quick profit and turn things around,or it could be outsmarted by its own cleverness,teetering on the edge of a precipice.
In the last quarter of last year,a significant number of workers in Vietnam faced unemployment,and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Vietnam's manufacturing sector also declined sharply for two consecutive months.
The substantial reduction in orders from Europe and America has already begun to show its harmful effects on Vietnam's economy.
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Last year,due to the continuous interest rate hikes by the United States and the impact of events such as the Russia-Ukraine war,the global economic development trend was not optimistic,and the economies of Europe and America showed signs of fatigue.
One of the main reasons is that the current demand for imported goods from Vietnam in the European and American markets is also gradually decreasing.Consequently,Vietnam's manufacturing industry naturally becomes more depressed.These enterprises have long been struggling to survive.
The development of Vietnam's economy has to come to a halt,and many Vietnamese enterprises are facing bankruptcy and closure,finding it difficult to save themselves.
The interest rate hikes adopted by the United States in the face of inflationary crises have also put tremendous pressure on the State Bank of Vietnam.Although Vietnam has been doing its best to control the spread of the situation,it is regrettable that the fire has gradually spread along the path of Vietnam's economic development.According to statistics,by the end of last year,Vietnam was even in debt to the tune of nearly 190 billion US dollars,with the US dollar constituting the majority of the foreign debt. Coupled with the pressure of debt,Vietnam found it even more difficult to breathe.
Coupled with the pressure of debt,Vietnam found it even more difficult to breathe.
Perhaps it was the pessimistic outlook on Vietnam's economic prospects that led to a staggering 140 trillion Vietnamese dong fleeing the Vietnamese market last year in a frenzy.
The withdrawal of funds caused the entire year's Vietnamese stock market to be in a state of fluctuation and decline.
This also affected the stability of the country's real estate market.
However,Vietnam did not sit idly by; to date,Vietnam has sold off one-third of the US debt it previously held,marking 11 consecutive months of US debt sales,thereby reducing the potential crisis of US debt and decreasing reliance on the US dollar.
On the other hand,Vietnam has increased its gold purchases,with the demand for gold in Vietnam soaring by as much as 37% throughout 2022,the largest increase in the entire ASEAN region.
At the same time,Vietnam is acutely aware that China is the biggest dependency for the continued development of its economy in the future.
ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner.
And with China's recent opening up of outbound tourism,Vietnam also has a greater opportunity to welcome a large influx of tourists,boosting its own tourism industry.Additionally,China's initiative to transfer low-end industries and production orders outward has also effectively supplemented the severe shortage of orders in Vietnam.
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